++ AMD는 1월중반 이후 시장 전체매출의 86%를 차지하였다 이에 반해 인텔의 매출은 시장의 14%에 불과했다.
이보다 더욱 눈여겨볼 사항이 있다. AMD의 매출은 신제품에 대한 매출과 함께 기존제품에 대한 매출도 포함되어 있다. 이는 인텔이 신제품에 매출의 대부분을 의존하고 있는 상황을 고려할때 향후 AMD의 실적이 대한 긍정적인 기대를 높이는 부분이다. 그리고 라이젠 3시리즈가 이러한 성장에 중요한 역할을 할 것으로 기대한다.
AMD: The Perfect Setup
February 13, 2020 08:28 AM
AMD accounted for roughly 85.6% of all x86 processor sales at Mindfactory in the second half of January.
AMD saw an even sales split between its newer and older generation SKUs whereas the bulk of Intel's sales were driven by its newer SKUs.
If this trend of sales outperformance continues in the coming cycles as well, it's bound to boost AMD's financials in Q1.
It seems like Ryzen 3000-series chips are becoming a major sales booster for AMD (AMD). Latest data from German e-commerce site, Mindfactory, reveals that AMD outsold Intel (INTC) in the microprocessor segment by a factor of almost 6-to-1 during the second half of January. This stellar sales performance corroborates that AMD’s 7nm product strategy is working well which, in turn, should come across as an encouraging sign for long-side investors. Let's take a closer look to have a better understanding of it all.
Rocking Numbers
Let me start by saying that AMD was left for dead till a few years ago and but it has rebounded to give a fierce fight to industry leader, Intel, with arguably better SKUs of late. Market dynamics keep changing every few years in the cutthroat semiconductor space but full points to AMD’s leadership for staging this turnaround.
As far as the sales data is concerned, we tracked 66 SKUs listed on Mindfactory in the second half of January, which was up from 52 SKUs tracked back in December. But in spite of new additions to the tracker, the general crux of the data was quite consistent with previous cycles -- AMD outsold Intel by a significant margin once again.
AMD held a share of 85.4% whereas Intel's share came in at 14.6% during the second half of January. Alternatively, we can also say that AMD outsold Intel by a factor of about 6-to-1.
Sales for both the chipmakers peaked during the holiday season by a significant amount. But now that the euphoria has faded and purchase trends have normalized, it’s evident that AMD’s lead over Intel in this particular sales channel is intact, and its sales volume has gradually increased over time.
There’s another key piece of information in this chart that’s vitally important for this competitive landscape. Notice that Intel’s sales volume consisted of mostly its 9th gen parts. However, AMD’s sales volume was split evenly between its Ryzen 3000 and its predecessor, the Ryzen 2000-series chips.
Besides, AMD’s recently released Threadripper SKUs -- 3950x, 3960x and 3970x -- accounted for about 3% of its overall sales volume during the cycle. But all this leads us to one important question – How is all this information valuable to AMD and/or Intel investors?
The Translation
For starters, AMD seems to be doing well in terms of unit sales. This goes to highlight that the advertised performance gains are more than just paper figures, and are actually encouraging DIY PC builders in Germany to opt for AMD's microprocessors in large numbers. This should come across as an encouraging sign for long-side investors and disproves the long-standing bear thesis that AMD’s SKUs are only for the niches.
Moreover, AMD isn’t done with releasing its 7nm Ryzen line-up yet. Management noted in the last earnings call that their laptop-centric APUs are expected to find their way into over a 100 actual notebooks this year. This corroborates my previous thesis that the success in the DIY space will eventually drive AMD’s sales in the OEM space, since the SKUs belong to the same chip family and are fabricated on the same node.
From AMD’s Q4 earnings call:
Initial systems featuring the Ryzen 4000 processors are expected to launch later this quarter and more than 100 AMD based consumer and commercial laptops are planned for 2020 from Acer, ASUS, Dell, HP, Lenovo and other major OEMs.
Besides, we saw earlier in the article that AMD is clocking an even sales split between its newer and older product generation while Intel is not. This suggests that AMD has managed to hit a sweet spot with discounting its older generation products whereas Intel is yet to strike that fine balance of pricing.
This also means that AMD is reaping healthy returns on its investments from the IP/chip architecture it designed several quarters back. On the other hand, Intel’s older generation products are quickly going out of favor and it has had to develop and market newer products quite frequently in order to keep its sales momentum going. So, AMD seems to be operating more efficiently compared to Intel.
Risk Factors
Having said that, I’d like to point to readers that there are shortcomings with using this data. For starters, we’re only tracking Mindfactory sales data, which, by the way, is an ecommerce site to buy PC parts in Germany. This means that most of the sales data collected here involves B2C transactions and doesn’t factor in the B2B sales volume that generally accounts for a significant portion in semiconductors trade.
Besides, the sales split between AMD and Intel may vary based on geographies, sales channels and e-commerce portals. To put it simply, purchasing trends on Amazon could be different from those on Mindfactory. Similarly, offline vs. online purchase trends might be different. So, we must remember to use this data primarily for conducting due diligence, rather than basing investment decisions solely off of it.
Final Thoughts
Having said that, I’ll also point to readers that Mindfactory data corroborates that AMD is sitting on a competitive product. Consumers in Germany wouldn’t be buying its SKUs in large numbers if AMD was selling duds, compared to Intel, at similar price points. So, this validates AMD’s product strategy.
Besides, Digitimes reported that Intel will be cutting prices in H2 2020 in order to stay competitive. This further corroborates our conclusions drawn from the data. It suggests that AMD is making meaningful advances in Intel’s market and the latter is looking to sacrifice is margins to preserve its market share.
So, altogether, these continued gains are bound to result in continued financial growth – shipments or ASP growth -- for AMD as a company. Hence, AMD investors should view this data as an encouraging sign to stay long on the scrip as the stock may continue to rally further. It's the perfect setup to buy AMD. Good Luck!
Author’s Note: I’ll be writing another article on AMD next week, you can stay updated by clicking the “Follow” button at the top of this page. Thanks!
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
출처 : https://seekingalpha.com/article/4323822