상하이 공장의 재가동 소식에 테슬라의 주가도 급등하였다. 그간 공장 중단의 영향은 제한적으로 보이기 때문에 앞으로 테슬라가 보여줄 2020년 1분기 실적에 대한 기대가 높아지고 있다. 테슬라에 주가 상승을 지속하기 위해서는 양호한 1분기 실적은 필수적으로 보인다.
테슬라의 중국 공장을 두개의 핵심 생산시설 중 하나인데 지난 1월 공개한 실적는 기대에 약간은 실망스러웠다. 엘론은 2020년말에는 적어도 주당 1000대의 차량을 생산할 것이라고 예상했는데 실제로는 그렇지 못했다.
테슬라에 따르면 중국 공장의 최대 생산가능능력은 주당 3000대이다. 중국 공장이 2020년 중반을 지나 안정화에 들어서면 기능 할 것으로 예상한다. 그리고 새로운 모델인 테슬라 모델 Y는 3월부터 생산에 들어간다.
테슬라의 3개 공장이 최대로 가동된다면 매년 640,000대의 차량을 생산할 수 있다. 분기당은 160,000대이다.
테슬라가 당장 최대 생산량을 보일 것이라고는 누구도 기대하지 않는다. 모델 Y의 생산에 돌입해야하는 상황이고 중국의 코로나바이러스의 영향도 있는 상황이기 때문이다. 하지만 테슬라에 대한 합리적인 기대 실적에 대해서는 고민해봐야 할 것이다.
1분기 생산량에 대해 추측해보면 140,000대를 생산해야하는 상황인데, 적어도 125,000대는 생산해야한다. 하지만 시장은 상당히 회의적인 분위기다. 이 수치는 직전 2019년 4분기 실적에 비해 낮아진 실적 기대치이기 때문이다.
Tesla: No Excuses Now
by Bill Maurer, seekingalpha.com
One of Monday's early winners is electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA), whose shares rallied more than $70 shortly after the open, before pulling back a bit, on news that the company's Shanghai factory was getting back to business. With the delay having been limited as compared to many others in the virus-stricken country, the company must now deliver spectacular results in Q1 2020 if it hopes to keep its share price at these elevated levels.
The Shanghai factory is one of two major production ramps that are expected to occur in 2020 for the company. When the company announced its Q4 2019 production and delivery figures in early January, the Shanghai numbers were a bit disappointing. The company was supposed to be producing at least 1,000 vehicles a week there by the end of 2020, or perhaps even more, depending on how you may have interpreted CEO Elon Musk's guidance over time, but less than 1,000 total salable cars had been produced.
The company stated that the Shanghai factory had demonstrated production run rate capability of 3,000 units per week, outside of local battery production that started in late December. The company has previously guided to hitting the 3,000 per week rate on a sustained basis by the middle of this year, and it provided this production update in the latest earnings report. Fremont-made Model Y deliveries are expected to start in March.
If you total the three production capacities detailed above, you get an annual capacity figure of 640,000 units. As the note below the graphic details, that number should be up to 740,000 units by the middle of this year. On a quarterly basis, that means that Tesla should have started this year at a 160,000 vehicle per quarter installed capacity rate and be at 185,000 by the end of Q2.
Now I don't think even the biggest Tesla bull is thinking Tesla will produce anywhere near those quarterly rates during this quarter. The Model Y is just starting up and those volumes will likely be limited, and the coronavirus will have an impact on the China numbers. However, I still think we can come up with a reasonable production estimate for the period, one mostly based on the Tesla bull case that the company is production-constrained.
The Fremont factory is producing 7,000 Model 3 units per week, so that should equal roughly 90,000 vehicles for the quarter. While Model S/X production capacity is listed at 22,500 vehicles per quarter on average for the year, a seasonally weaker quarter should mean roughly 20,000 vehicles of production. Past Q1 periods have seen production top deliveries, so a little inventory build for these vehicles wouldn't be that surprising.
Since the Model Y is already in production and Tesla has boosted its annual capacity value for Fremont Model 3/Y by 50k since the Q3 update, that would imply a 12,500 quarterly rate currently, going to 150k annually or 37,500 per quarter by mid-year. Obviously, the Model Y ramp will be gradual, but given how Tesla management has talked about its ongoing learning from prior ramps, I would think at least 10,000 Model Y units should be produced this quarter, especially if the company expects to be producing a few thousand per week by the end of Q2.
That gets us back to the Shanghai factory. Since battery pack production has started and the rest of the facility is supposedly at 3,000 unit per week run rates, management said the annual installed capacity is 150,000 units. Given the local government support recently cited for this factory, along with the improved factory layout detailed in the investor letter, it would seem that a 2,000 per week average seems reasonable. I'll also only use 10 weeks for the quarter, given the Chinese new year break plus virus shutdown. That would mean 20,000 vehicles come out of Shanghai during Q1.
Adding those numbers up gives us a total quarterly production amount of 140,000 vehicles. Given what installed annual capacity is now and is supposed to ramp to by the end of Q2, I think that's a very fair estimate. Now not all of those Model Y and Shanghai units will be delivered in the period, but the China factory reduces delivery times to that country and the Model Y deliveries are all US right now. Still, Tesla should be able to deliver at least 125,000 vehicles of that in the quarter if it truly is production-constrained, which still allows for a large number in transit at the end of the period.
Will Tesla be able to deliver that much during this quarter? Well, the Street seems highly skeptical, given the current estimate is for just $6.72 billion in revenues compared to almost $7.4 billion in Q4 2019. While there will be seasonality impacts for things like solar, Tesla bulls also expect a lot of credit revenues this year from the Fiat deal. Holding all else equal, the current Street estimate would imply most analysts expect somewhere between 100k and 105k deliveries in Q1, well below what a production-constrained company should be able to do.
With the Shanghai factory reopening for Tesla on Monday, there should be no excuses now for the company not reporting a record period by quite a large margin. While there will be a small impact on Chinese production and deliveries, management said on the conference call that it was not aware of any impacts from the coronavirus on Fremont production. Since there has been no update since then, one would think there was no material impact there, meaning we should see record production and deliveries that come in well above Q4 2019 levels. With this stock trading above $750 currently, the bull case is relying on the production constrained narrative moving forward. Anything short of what I detailed today would seem to be a disappointment and go against that notion.
Source : https://seekingalpha.com/article/4323297